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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Michigan St.

Conference:B10
Expected RPI:14.0
Current RPI:14
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:85
Current Record:29-4
Expected Record:29-4
Current Conf Record:17-3
Expected Conf Record:17-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:15-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:215


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-414.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Michigan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10North Florida (218.0)ASunH98-66W100%0.0
11-14Duke (7.0)ACCN81-88L0%0.0
11-19Stony Brook (208.0)AEH93-71W100%0.0
11-23DePaul (186.0)BEN51-73W100%0.0
11-24Connecticut (123.0)AmerN77-57W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina (4.0)ACCN63-45W100%0.0
11-30Notre Dame (70.0)ACCH81-63W100%0.0
12-3Nebraska (56.0)B10H86-57W100%0.0
12-5Rutgers (203.0)B10A52-62W100%0.0
12-9Southern Utah (252.0)BSkyH88-63W100%0.0
12-16Oakland (182.0)HorzN73-86W100%0.0
12-18Houston Baptist (345.0)SlndH107-62W100%0.0
12-21Long Beach St. (191.0)BWH102-60W100%0.0
12-29Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzH111-61W100%0.0
12-31Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH108-52W100%0.0
1-4Maryland (74.0)B10H91-61W100%0.0
1-7Ohio St. (20.0)B10A80-64L0%0.0
1-10Rutgers (203.0)B10H76-72W100%0.0
1-13Michigan (12.0)B10H72-82L0%0.0
1-19Indiana (125.0)B10H85-57W100%0.0
1-22Illinois (181.0)B10A74-87W100%0.0
1-26Wisconsin (114.0)B10H76-61W100%0.0
1-28Maryland (74.0)B10A68-74W100%0.0
1-31Penn St. (77.0)B10H76-68W100%0.0
2-3Indiana (125.0)B10A60-63W100%0.0
2-6Iowa (157.0)B10A93-96W100%0.0
2-10Purdue (9.0)B10H68-65W100%0.0
2-13Minnesota (171.0)B10A57-87W100%0.0
2-17Northwestern (168.0)B10A60-65W100%0.0
2-20Illinois (181.0)B10H81-61W100%0.0
2-25Wisconsin (114.0)B10A63-68W100%0.0
3-2Wisconsin (114.0)B10N63-60W100%0.0
3-3Michigan (12.0)B10N64-75L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Michigan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Michigan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Michigan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Michigan St.B1026.1626.1686.5886.5819.1319.13
WisconsinB105.115.1150.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB103.713.7145.1645.16-0.36-0.36
MichiganB103.713.7178.1278.122.092.09
IllinoisB103.693.6944.8344.83-0.38-0.38
IndianaB103.663.6655.1755.170.380.38
MarylandB103.663.6662.0762.070.880.88
PurdueB102.312.3184.8584.851.611.61
IowaB102.242.2443.7543.75-0.28-0.28
NebraskaB102.242.2470.9770.970.940.94
NorthwesternB102.212.2146.6746.67-0.15-0.15
Ohio St.B102.192.1974.1974.191.061.06
Penn St.B102.182.1863.6463.640.590.59
MinnesotaB102.152.1548.3948.39-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC1.701.7073.5373.530.800.80
Notre DameACC1.681.6859.3859.380.310.31
DukeACC1.671.6778.1278.120.940.94
Stony BrookAE1.631.6340.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Cleveland St.Horz1.631.6333.3333.33-0.54-0.54
DePaulBE1.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
OaklandHorz1.581.5859.3859.380.300.30
Long Beach St.BW1.561.5643.3343.33-0.21-0.21
Southern UtahBSky1.561.5637.9337.93-0.38-0.38
North FloridaASun1.561.5637.9337.93-0.38-0.38
ConnecticutAmer1.541.5445.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Houston BaptistSlnd1.521.5211.1111.11-1.18-1.18
Savannah St.MEAC1.521.5244.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
SyracuseACC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.180.183.333.33-0.17-0.17
VirginiaACC0.180.1893.9493.940.160.16
MarquetteBE0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
DetroitHorz0.160.1620.0020.00-0.10-0.10
Green BayHorz0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
ButlerBE0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Seton HallBE0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1415.6215.62-0.10-0.10
Wake ForestACC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Miami FLACC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
PittsburghACC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
IUPUIHorz0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
NJITASun0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
UMass LowellAE0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.120.1284.8584.850.080.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
UCLAP120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
ClemsonACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
UMBCAE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
CreightonBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Wichita St.Amer0.100.1078.1278.120.050.05
St. John'sBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
SouthernSWAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.099.689.68-0.07-0.07
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0710.7110.71-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.076.676.67-0.06-0.06
AlbanyAE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
VermontAE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
LipscombASun0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
MontanaBSky0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Fort WayneSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ArizonaP120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
VCUA100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.038.008.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00